Prophet

Electricity market model

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MODELLING POWER SYSTEMS AND COMPETITIVE MARKETS

PROPHET is an advanced market simulation model developed by IES for modelling spot electricity markets. It has been under continual development for over 15 years including development priorities arising from customer requirements. Although primarily used for Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM), PROPHET has been designed to be sufficiently generic to be adapted to any market that has a spot market. With a flexible model and powerful features, the power is in your hands to gain detailed insights into competitive markets and potential outcomes.

Scenario based modelling

Develop modelling scenarios in the powerful PROPHET user-interface where you have complete control over all model inputs. Have confidence that you will not be held back by limitations within the software.
  • User configurable network, generation assets and load
  • Complete control of model inputs down to the dispatch interval level
  • Easily switch between modelling data sets using macro substitution
  • Run batches of scenarios

Model market behaviour as you see it

There is no point in having a powerful market simulation engine if you cannot easily model real market behaviour. PROPHET gives you the tools to model market behaviour as you see it, starting with realistic bidding scenarios and allowing for rebidding.
  • Use standard automatic bidding scenarios such as short and long run marginal cost recovery.
  • Enhanced bidding options that model observable business supply curves taking into account contract positions
  • Rebid portfolios in the event of random plant outages
  • Rebid portfolios under user defined conditions
  • Profit maximisation taking into account portfolio output - profit trade-offs

Full co-optimisation of all market elements

Build investment decisions into your model that are co-optimised market dispatch, resource management, gas supply and demand, and generic network constraints.
  • Integer and continuous plant new entry
  • Plant retirements
  • Network investment options
  • Staged investment options
  • Co-optimised electricity and gas networks
  • Optimised unit commitment taking into account fuel and emission constraints
  • Ancillary services

Generate consistent demand forecasts

Easily integrate load scenarios with built in tools for generating load forecasts from historical load profiles.
  • System load with value of lost load
  • Lost load sharing
  • Dispatchable load
  • Load growth tool using historical load data and projected energy and maximum demand
  • Load builder tool using historical load and weather

Simple yet powerful tools to get the job done

PROPHET's intuitive user interface lets you get on with the task of modelling.
  • Utilise multiple database and formats in a single environment workspace
  • Use database servers (e.g. SQL Server and Oracle)
  • User accounts with logins and permissions
  • Export and import between databases

Access the results you need

Generate any number of reports both in aggregated and raw formats.
  • User defined reporting options including aggregated reports, calculated values, time filtered reporting, and bid reporting
  • Reporting to file and database
  • Themed graphical reporting for inclusion in documents and for presentations

External interfaces

PROPHET is designed to fit in to the way that you work and with your existing systems.
  • Use external data from file or database queries
  • Import tool for bid data
  • Copy and paste data easily between Microsoft Excel and the PROPHET front-end
  • Command line interface for running scenarios
  • .NET interface for interacting with PROPHET from .NET environments

Plugins and Scripting

With an extensible frontend framework through plugins and the ability to write custom backend scripts you have unparalleled options to extend the existing PROPHET functionality.
  • Add custom plugins to improve productivity through automation of tasks
  • Complete control over the scenario running process
  • Write script code that runs in the backend solver to add custom business logic and behaviour

Who should use PROPHET?

PROPHET has wide applications within industry:
  • Pool price forecasting in both the short and long term
  • Evaluate asset values under varying market assumptions
  • Investigate system adequacy and build options
  • Model different levels of embedded generation and the effect on existing generators and network performance
  • Model RET and other schemes to encourage renewable generation
  • Manage assets and limited resources
  • Analyse the effect of transmission constraints
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